Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 22.997280 27.175966 32.352006 39.404823 49.054471 62.279103 82.752866
2024-12-22 17.615172 22.128793 28.310090 37.852401 53.208480 79.235830 133.804635
2024-12-29 15.038291 19.643074 26.380100 37.735580 58.434319 100.596634 221.957275
2025-01-05 12.889316 17.234577 23.854539 35.658783 59.083862 113.859201 323.595823
2025-01-12 11.169585 15.159780 21.400093 32.952354 57.272187 120.309623 430.347775
2025-01-19 9.926055 13.637996 19.570393 30.906368 56.035208 127.694413 590.018419
2025-01-26 10.087402 14.312787 21.468296 36.396204 74.911677 225.657607 4432.179487
2025-02-02 9.752996 14.124930 21.812584 38.837329 87.948571 341.667317 NaN
2025-02-09 8.923839 13.007899 20.275989 36.688296 85.870211 368.430325 NaN
2025-02-16 8.603207 12.731064 20.287321 38.167481 97.091284 553.467008 NaN
2025-02-23 8.151220 12.176665 19.678131 37.974433 102.288124 734.122708 NaN
2025-03-02 7.741200 11.660097 19.078759 37.671184 107.068719 987.678619 NaN
2025-03-09 7.416490 11.296799 18.801942 38.336413 117.906336 1714.714900 NaN
2025-03-16 6.947948 10.632613 17.823867 36.845756 117.382451 2192.260548 NaN
2025-03-23 6.634580 10.232003 17.359376 36.733576 124.486373 4026.819678 NaN
2025-03-30 6.214183 9.600035 16.330601 34.738083 119.411178 4507.712511 NaN
2025-04-06 5.783238 8.924696 15.156380 32.134152 109.472992 3743.228732 NaN
2025-04-13 5.428861 8.377717 14.227194 30.162962 102.746973 3509.335122 NaN
2025-04-20 5.597372 8.835620 15.551979 35.446895 149.096484 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.546231 8.861838 15.907563 37.791283 182.048244 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.255576 8.394235 15.058851 35.727575 171.328003 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.169514 8.331138 15.167027 37.148287 199.392386 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.007539 8.104546 14.858843 36.962934 210.261530 NaN NaN